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Week 13 of the NFL season continues with two interconference games on Monday night, as the Washington Football Team faces the Pittsburgh Steelers and the Buffalo Bills travel out West to face the San Francisco 49ers. All four teams are immersed in the thick of the playoff race, so it should certainly be a double dose of must-see TV.
In this article, I’ll identify the best value in the player prop betting market from these two games, choosing one play from each of the four teams. The odds in this article are brought to you by William Hill – New Jersey residents can use the promo code – TS500 – for a 100% deposit bonus up to $500.
Table of contents
Alex Smith (Washington Football Team) at Pittsburgh Steelers
Monday, 5:00 pm EST Watch: FOX
Heinz Field – Pittsburgh, PA
Under 218.5 Passing Yards (-115)
The Steelers flash the NFL’s #1 pass defense in DVOA and yards allowed per pass attempt. Not to mention, WFT’s offensive line is not that great at all. Earlier this season, a similarly strong LA Rams defense absolutely abused them. Now, we have to imagine what Pittsburgh will do to this part of Washington’s team.
After passing for 300+ yards in two straight games, Smith has totaled just 315 of them over the last two games. This will clearly be the toughest defense he has faced this season.
Chase Claypool (Pittsburgh Steelers) vs. Washington Football Team
Monday, 5:00 pm EST Watch: FOX
Heinz Field – Pittsburgh, PA
Over 50.5 Receiving Yards (-115)
WFT’s defense gets the third-highest defensive aDOT (average depth of target) this season at 9.1 yards. While Steelers QB Ben Roethlisberger only has an aDOT of 7.1 yards, he’ll likely have to take some deep shots in this matchup. That brings us to Claypool, which ranks first on the team in aDOT at 12.6 yards.
Claypool has exceeded this 50.5-yard mark in each of his last four games, and even has at least eight targets in each of the last five games.
Stefon Diggs (Buffalo Bills) at San Francisco 49ers
Monday, 8:15 pm EST Watch: ESPN
Levi’s Stadium – Santa Clara, CA
Over 6.5 Receptions (+105)
It’s crazy that we’re getting plus-odds on this bet, albeit barely, so let’s take advantage of it. The 6.5-number is one Diggs has exceeded in three straight games, and his lowest total of the season was four; that happened once, and Diggs has at least six catches in every other game.
Diggs was held to a season-low 39 yards last week against the Chargers, a tough matchup for opposing WRs. Those 39 yards still came on a high volume of looks- seven catches on nine targets. Because of the lack of yards last week, I would expect Bills QB Josh Allen would look to find his No. 1 target in a number of creative ways tonight.
49ers CB Richard Sherman doesn’t necessarily move around on defense, staying put on one side of the field. That’ll allow the Bills to put Diggs in a variety of different areas of the field to help us capitalize on this bet.
Nfl Player Props For Today
Jordan Reed (San Francisco 49ers) vs. Buffalo Bills
Monday, 8:15 pm EST Watch: ESPN
Levi’s Stadium – Santa Clara, CA
Anytime TD Scorer (+275)
The Bills have been quite vulnerable to the TE position this season, allowing five different players to get at least five receptions and seven targets in a game. In fact, four of those five exceeded 60 yards.
With all of that being said, I feel like the path of most likely success is finding the end zone. This should be more of a different style that San Fran plays tonight, in that they’ll need to pick up the pace if they fall behind the Bills- like I think they well. The running game could be beneficial to the 49ers early on, so that will set up some nice play-action opportunities for him and hopefully, have it occur in the end zone.
The Los Angeles Chargers (4-9) square off with the Las Vegas Raiders (7-6) Thursday for a Week 15 matchup at Allegiant Stadium kicking off at 8:20 p.m. ET. Below, we give you five player/team prop bets to consider from the BetMGM game menu.
Also see:Chargers at Raiders odds, picks and best bets
Chargers at Raiders TNF prop bet predictions
Odds via BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated at 6:30 a.m. ET.
Raiders -0.5 (+100) 1st quarter spread
The Raiders haven’t been getting off to great starts lately, as they have been losing or tied after one quarter in the past three. However, over the past three home games, they have scored a combined 28 points while allowing just 20 in the first quarter. And the last time they faced the Chargers, at SoFi Stadium in Week 9, they held a 7-0 lead after 15 minutes.
The Chargers have been losing or tied after the first quarter in six of their past seven games, too, getting outscored 51-20 during the span.
Raiders QB Derek Carr OVER 1.5 passing TDs (-185)
The juice is a little more than I like to lay, but this is a solid prop on Thursday night.
First, RB Josh Jacobs has been a bit banged up lately and just hasn’t been himself in the past couple of games. So you expect Carr to throw the ball early and often against the Bolts. In the first meeting, a 31-26 win for the Raiders, Carr did throw just 23 times. He also has only 165 yards.
However, the veteran quarterback also tossed two touchdowns in the five-point win, and he has two or more touchdowns in three of his past four outings, and nine of his past 12.
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Chargers QB Justin Herbert OVER 279.5 pass yards (-105)
Herbert has been hoisting the ball up frequently in his rookie season. He took over for the injured QB Tyrod Taylor in Week 2 and he hasn’t looked back. Since that Week 2 start, he has 278 or more yards in nine of his 12 appearances, and he had 326 yards against the Raiders in the first meeting on Nov. 8.
Chargers QB Justin Herbert OVER 38.5 pass attempts (+105)
You’ve heard the term “drive the wheels off of it” for a car, right? The Chargers are using the “pass until the arm falls off it” philosophy with their rookie quarterback. He is going to need to socially distance himself from working out this offseason, and just go find a cold pool to rest in for a few weeks.
Herbert enters this game second in the NFL with 499 passing attempts across 12 games, which equates to roughly 42 per outing. That’s exactly how many attempts he had in the first meeting, and he has had 44 or more attempts in each of his past four. As far as this prop is concerned, he would have won it in seven of the past eight outings.
Chargers WR Keenan Allen anytime touchdown (-140)
Allen is one of the favorites in this game to score at least one touchdown and for good reason. He has visited the end zone in six of his past seven games, including the first meeting with the Silver and Black. He also has a score in four consecutive road contests.
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