How To Bet When Counting Cards
Always take time to review and choose the right card counting system. For beginners, the KO and Hi. Betting When You Have The Edge (Card Counting) With card counting, you know when you have the edge based on the change in the composition of the decks and therefore you'll know when it's.
One of the most often asked questions from players about blackjack strategy, is 'how should I bet?' You've got severaloptions and I'll discuss them in this article and offer my recommendation.
Flat Bet Blackjack Strategy
This means betting the same amount all the time. Most players don't like to bet this way because they figure if the dealer wins more hands then them they'll never win any money. Also, playersfeel it's boring betting this way. They prefer the thrill of sometimes betting more in the hopes that when they do so, they will win the hand and make a nice profit.
Here are the facts on the flat betting blackjack strategy. If you bet say $5 on every hand in a standard multiple deck game the house will have an edge of 0.5% against theskilled basic strategy player. That means you will lose on average 0.5% of every wager you make. So if you bet $10 on every hand and average 80 hands per hour you will have made a total of $800worth of bets. The casino expects to earn 0.5% of the $800 or $4.00. Of course, the more likely result is that you'll win or lose much more than $4 after an hour of play. But on average you canexpect over time to lose at the rate of $4 per hour.
Let's take an example of a player flat betting $10 on every hand. It's is a conservative betting strategy that leads to a relatively low theoretical loss rate. The fluctuation in this player'sbankroll will also be low which means the likelihood he'll have a big winning or losing session is not great.
Watch 'Why You Should Never Make the Blackjack Insurance Bet with Blackjack Expert Henry Tamburin' (March 2016)
In this video blackjack expert Henry Tamburin explains why a basic strategy player should never make an insurance bet. He gives details on three different situations that a player may encounterand why he considers blackjack insurance to always be a sucker bet.
Progressive Betting Blackjack Strategy
This is where things get interesting. The Progressive betting blackjack strategy is when players vary their bets in some way from one hand to the next rather than alwaysbetting the same amount on every hand. There are all different types of betting progressions but they all have one common denominator. You either decrease or increase your next bet dependingupon whether the hand you just played won or lose.
Win progressions encourage you to increase your bet size after a winning hand. For example, you make a minimum bet of $10 and if you win, you raise your next stakes on the hand to $20.
There are all different kinds of win progressions. The most common is a 1-2-3-5 progression. This means you increase your bet by the above multiples after each winning hand butas soon as you experience a loss, you start the progression over with a 1 unit bet.
Proponents of win progressions will tell you that you'll win more money if you win 5 consecutive hands compared to the amount you lose if you lose 5 consecutive hands. Of course, what theydon't tell you is that you never know when that 5 consecutive winning hand streak will occur.
There are also betting progressions in which you increase your bet following a loss. These Martingale type betting progressions are dangerous and you should never consider using them.
There are also hybrid betting progressions, which have you increase your bets following a win, but after two or three success wins you lock up some profit and gradually regress your bets. Thecreativity of progressive bettors is never-ending.
First of all, the blackjack strategy for betting progressions does not change the 0.5% house edge one iota. There has never been a correlation between the hand just won (orlost) and your chance of winning the next hand. In other words, using the criteria of the result of one hand (W/L) to base how you bet on the next hand has no scientific validity. So bettingprogressions, in the long run, don't work in the sense that they won't improve your long-term chances of winning.
But here's what betting progressions will do. First off they increase the fluctuation in your session bankroll compared to flat betting. This means you can win more using abetting progression compared to flat betting but you can also lose more. Secondly, betting progressions will increase the amount of money you wager per hour compared to flat betting. If a $10bettor uses a 1-2-3-5 betting progression, his average bet will $20. Over an hour he will average $20 times 80 hands or $1600 worth of bets. The casino's expected win is 0.5% of $1600 or $8. Inother words, a $10 progressive bettor stands to lose twice as much per hour as a $10 flat bettor.
How To Bet When Counting Cards
Here's a tip to save you some money in the long run if you insist on using a betting progression. Instead of starting your progression at $10, start at a lower amount (ie. $5). This will reduceyour average bet to $10 per hour and cut your hourly theoretical loss rate in half.
When Counting On Return
But in the long run flat betting and betting progressions don't work in the sense they won't change the house edge against you and you will lose in the long run. So what betting system works?That, my friends, is card counting.
Betting When You Have The Edge (Card Counting)
With card counting, you know when you have the edge based on the change in the composition of the decks and therefore you'll know when it's the right time to bet more. Sounlike betting progressions that are based on whether you win or lose the previous hands, card counting is based on the mix of cards that were played on previous hands. If more small valuecards were played in previous rounds, there are more big value cards left in the unplayed cards, and the edge shifts from dealer to the player. This would be the best time to bet more.
But I'm a realist. Not a whole lot of average blackjack players have the time or mental concentration during play that is required to master one of the popular point count cardcounting systems. These are readily available in blackjack books. But even though millions of blackjack books have been sold since Ed Thorp's classic book, Beat The Dealer (circa 1962) firstrevealed card counting to the masses, the number of players who can successfully win money in the long run at blackjack number in the hundreds and thousands.
So what's the answer to betting at blackjack for the average player? I asked Don Pronovost that same question about four years ago. Don is a software developer that markets blackjack trainingsoftware. He spent the better part of two years and a trillion computer simulated hands looking for the solution to this dilemma. What he developed is Speed Count.
Speed Count is unlike any conventional card counting system. It's much simpler to master and requires much less concentration when you play. And unlike progressive betting systems, Speed Countwill give you a verifiable advantage over the casino You can read about Speed Count in Frank Scoblete’s book, Golden Touch Blackjack Revolution.
Now that you know the scoop on betting at blackjack, I wish you many aces and faces the next time you play.
Henry Tamburin has been a respected casino gambling writer for the past 50 years. He is the author of theUltimate Blackjack Strategy Guide and was editor of theBlackjack Insider newsletter. You can read his latest articles on blackjack, video poker, and his personal playing experiences at https://www.888casino.com/blog/writers/henry-tamburin
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Card counting is a system that experienced blackjack players use to get a profitable advantage over the casino. There are many individual “counts” or systems. Many of them are named after colorful professional gamblers from times past.
The 2008 movie “21” bought card counting to the attention of the general public. It followed the true story of members of the MIT blackjack team as they won millions from casinos in LasVegas. This movie also highlighted the key challenge faced by card counters. To make a profit using these systems, you need to bet significantly more when the odds turn in your favor. Casinos are aware of this — and will quickly ban players they believe are counting cards.
This page has everything you need to know to get started with card counting. Below you will find the basics of how it works. Famoussystems, the ideal games for counters and how online blackjack can help you learn to count are also covered below.
How to count cards in blackjack
Blackjack is a game of incomplete information. Players act based on their own two cards and the single dealer up-card. Players must risk busting in many situations, even though the decisions are mathematically correct.
Small cards are the enemy of blackjack players. Values of two through six can make for the trickiest decisions. In fact, if you remove any significant number of small cards from the shoe, blackjack not only becomes easier, the player gets a mathematical edge over the house.
This is where card counting comes in.
Counters track the proportion of small cards to face cards and aces. At a certain point, the deck turns “positive.” The higher proportion of face cards means every hand played will generate long term profit for the player — not the house. This is because profit comes from doubling, splitting and hitting blackjack (natural21). All of these are more frequent when there are more high cards in the shoe.
To take advantage of this edge, counting players must boost their bet size. Without this bet size boost, money spent playing while waiting for the deck to turn positive would cancel out any wins.
There are multiple factors that affect whether a specific game is a candidate for card counting. The number of decks of cards in play, the rules on splitting and doubling down, and how the dealer reacts to a soft 17 all come into play. To get the best from counting cards, you need to find the games with the lowest house edge.
Level 3 card counting systems & true count explained
Card counting systems have three levels of complexity. The simplest systems are Hi-LoCounts. You count low cards as +1 and high cards as -1. The higher the count, the bigger the proportion of high cards to low cards.
Advantage players will increase their bets once a specific count is reached. To be sure that they have an advantage, they need to translate the current total into the “true count” first. This involves dividing the count by the number of decks still in play. If the count is +10, with five decks remaining in a six-deck shoe, then the “true count” is 10/5 = 2. This means games like double-deck blackjack are better for counting. Players do not need to play through those first decks in the shoe while waiting for the true count to be positive.
Level two and level three counting systems are more accurate. They assign +2 to some cards and +1 to others. This splits the twos and sevens from cards three throughsix, with some systems also counting nines differently. There are systems with separate counts for aces. Your bet sizes need to increase in line with the positive count — for example adding a unit every time the true count increases by two points.
If you are new to cardcounting, then a simple Hi-Lo Count is the place to start. Once you have mastered keeping track of the count while playing each hand perfectly and chatting with the other players, you will be ready to move to the next level.
Examples of card counting systems
The systems below range from level one to three. These are five of hundreds of possible systems, giving you an overview of how different systems vary in their complexity.
- Hi-Lo Count: This is a balanced count and is the first system that new counters use. You add one to the total for each card value from two through six — and subtract one for 10s through aces. Seven, eight and nine are neutral. You then divide this count by the number of undealt decks and round up as needed. You should increase your bets when the count is positive — betting more the larger the positive number that you count. The advantage of the Hi-Lo system is simplicity. Compared with other blackjack counts, Hi Lo card counting does lackprecision.
- Hi-Opt1 and 2: These systems were developed by LanceHumble, though they can be traced back to the 1960s. There are many more“neutral”cards compared to the Hi-Lo Count. Hi-Opt 1 uses aces, twos, sevens, eights and nines as zero for the count. Three, four, five and six are +1, and 10s through kings are -1. This system works best for single deckgames. Hi-Opt 2 makes 10s through kings -2 on the count, with +2 for fours and fives, +1 for twos, threes, sixes and sevens. Aces, eights and nines are neutral. These are accurate systems, though with single deck games rare (and closely watched), it can be difficult to find a suitable game to use them.
- Ace-Five System: You will need to double your bet repeatedly as the count increases to make the Ace-Five System work. This is a simple count, involving only aces andfives. Every time a five is dealt, you add one, and every ace you see removes one. When the count is +2, you double your bet. Increasing it again for every +2 that gets added. If the count reverts to +1 or less, you go back to your initial bet size. The key advantage of this system is the simplicity. The always-changing bet size is likely to attract the attention of casino pit bosses.
- Uston Advanced Count: Ken Uston was a famous card counter, known for his flamboyant lifestyle. His most complex system is the “Uston Advanced Count.” Aces count as zero in this system. Fives are +3; 10s through kings are -3; nines are -1; twos and eights are +1; and threes, fours, sixes and sevens are +2. As with the other systems, you increase your bets in line with how positive the count gets — keeping the number of decks in mind. This system is designed to work best with a separate count of theaces. The complexity means that it is for experienced card counters only.
- KO Counting System: This system works like Hi-Lo, with an extra feature involving the insurance against dealer blackjack bet. It counts cards two through seven as +1, eight and nine as neutral and 10 through ace as -1. You should increase your bet at +2 or more (based on the true count). At +3 or greater, the insurance side bet becomes profitable and should be taken.
Which blackjack games are best for card counting?
Big casino resorts in Las Vegas, AtlanticCity, downtown Detroit and elsewhere run a wide selection of blackjack games. At the lowest buy-ins (typically $5 and up per hand), the rules give the casino a huge edge over theplayers. Examples include paying 6:5 instead of 3:2 for blackjack, limiting doubles after splits and having the dealer hit on soft 17. These unfavorable rules can easily boost the house edge to 3% or even more. With six or eight decks, getting a true count can be difficult.
Contrast this with the best games. An ideal setup is a single deck game, with liberal splitting/doubling rules, dealer standing on soft 17, late surrender and 3:2 for blackjack. With a house edge of 0.5% orless, these games are restricted to the high-limit rooms. This type of game is most likely to be closely monitored. Suddenly increasing your bet would be an instant trigger for experienced casino staff to watch closely.
Successful counters look for games with the lowest natural houseedge. They know the basic blackjack card counting strategy perfectly, so as not to give any edge back to the casino in the form of mistakes. If you do not know how to adapt blackjack strategy to subtle differences in the rules, then you are not yet ready to learn card counting techniques.
Is counting cards illegal in the US?
Counting cards is legal, unless you are using a mechanical or electronic device to help you keep track of the cards. Casinos do not want card counters in their games. People who are suspected of counting will be asked to leave the casino. Repeat offenses can see players banned — with trespass laws coming into effect if they attempt to return.
In 1979, Ken Uston took a casino in Atlantic City to court, challenging its right to ban “skilled” players. The court found in his favor. Rather than banning players, AC casinos now implement measures to stop card counting from working. They include regularshuffling, limiting players to flat bet sizes on each shoe and not allowing players to join a game mid-shoe.
Elsewhere, casinos will quickly ban players caught counting. This was the reason that the MIT team played in pairs. One player (betting small) would keep count, then signal to the big bet player when the count was positive. This player could then join the table, betting big amounts, while the original counter continued with smaller bets.
Card counting in other casino games
Very few casino games use a shoe containing several decks of cards. Casino poker variations like Caribbean stud or Ultimate Texas Hold ’em have a continual shuffle system, where a fresh shuffled deck is used for each hand. Baccarat does use a shoe, though it is not suitable for counting due to the complex scoring rules. Edge sorting is used in baccarat, though it is considered illegal in many jurisdictions.
This leaves blackjack variations like Spanish 21 and Free Bet Blackjack as the only candidates for card counting systems. Many variations of blackjack have a higher house edge than the main game. Spanish 21 removes 10s from the deck — starting the count on a negative.
Experienced advantage players use card counting to beat optional side bets. This requires a separate understanding of how each side bet works, with a counting system developed separately. Separate aces counts in blackjack can determine when the insurance against dealer blackjack bet becomes profitable.
Is it possible to count cards online?
Online casinos in regulated states have both live dealer and software-based blackjack options. They also have a range of games with different rules and side bets. Add in the game variations based on the 21 concept — and you will find a wide array of choices.
Advantage play through card counting is not possible at online casinos. Software based games use random number generator software to shuffle the cards for every hand. This means no count is possible. Live dealer games that are dealt in real time use eight deck shoes. What they do differently from brick and mortar casinos is reshuffle after around half of the cards are dealt. This makes it hard to spot situations where there is a positive true count. Add to this software that will instantly detect the bet sizing changes associated with counting.
What you can effectively do online is practice your counting skills. There are live dealer rooms at many of the biggest online casino brands, including Golden Nugget and BetMGM. You can enjoy a game and learn to keep score of the count while you play. Starting with simple systems like Ace-Five and Hi-Lo is ideal — you can move on to the more advanced systems as you gain experience.
If you live in a state with legal online casinos, make sure you keep a close eye on the casino bonus and promotion offers. You never know when a bonus aimed at blackjack players will become available.
Wrapping up: Card counting in blackjack
Card counting has been a part of blackjack since the1960s. Famous players including Humble and Uston published books on beating the house. Many of them are now considered among the classics of gambling literature.
Counting cards in blackjack gives you an edge over the house when there are relatively more high cards in the deck. This takes advantage of the player’s option to split, double down and to take insurance against dealer blackjack. Counting systems are graded into three levels, depending on their complexity. More complex systems are more accurate — though harder to use.
There is an Achilles’ heel for card counters. To make your knowledge of the count profitable, you need to significantly boost your bet sizes when the odds are in your favor. These bet size increases are a flag to casino staff to watch your play closely — which leads to card counters being banned. Card counting is not illegal, unless you use a device to help you keep track.
Online casinos are the perfect place to practice your card counting skills. You will not be able to get an advantage from them — as safeguards are in place. Live dealer casinos show a real table, making this the ideal way to find the right card counting system for you ahead of your next visit to a brick and mortar casino.