How Does Betting On Nfl Games Work

Total betting in the NFL is set up to work pretty much the same as spread betting. The sportsbook collects the wagers from everyone betting the over and everyone betting the under. If there’s more money on one side, the oddsmakers can move the total higher. Point Spread Because most NFL games are mismatches, bookmakers use a point spread to balance out betting action on the two sides. Otherwise, everybody would just wager on the favorites to win, and bookies would be left to cover the difference. So in the case of. NFL spread betting is probably the most common and popular way to bet on football as it adds some excitement and better odds from just picking an outright winner. If you are new to betting the NFL altogether, be sure to check out our great How to Bet on the NFL guide. Here is an example of a point spread for an NFL game and how it would look.

1. Betting On Nfl Games

The sports betting industry is on a meteoric rise in this country and we’re approaching one of the first NFL seasons where it will be possible to legally wager on most games outside of Nevada. Even in a largely illegal market, the American Gaming Association estimated that bettors wagered over $4.3 billion on Super Bowl LV alone.

With ample time between games and a wealth of strategy to consider, football is an understandably popular sport for mainstream bettors. Using analytics to gain an edge in predicting how games will unfold can help the savvy bettor go against the grain to earn big paydays. Conversely, the popularity of NFL betting can help bettors isolate a potential winner by piggybacking on research conducted by the masses.

This page can serve as a reference for residents of states that have legalized online betting. It will break down the basics of NFL betting, from various types of bets, to strategy, to tips on how to predict trends and think independently. If you heed this advice and weigh your options and bankroll carefully, you could turn a consistent profit throughout the 2020 NFL season.

NFL team betting guides

Where is NFL betting legal?

When the Supreme Court overturned PASPA in May of 2018, it opened the door for individual states to legalize sports gambling. Beginning with New Jersey (the original plaintiff in the PASPA case), several states quickly moved to legalize and regulate the industry within state lines. Betting on the NFL and other professional sports is still not federally legal, but residents of the following states can place bets at live sportsbooks:

Nevada
Pennsylvania
New Jersey
Delaware
Mississippi
West Virginia
Rhode Island
New Mexico
Arkansas
Iowa
New York
Oregon
Indiana
Illinois
Montana

Most other states in the US have introduced some sort of bill that would legalize sports gambling. Of course, some states are far closer than others to legalizing the industry. Visit our state betting pages at TheLines.com to get a look at the status in each state.

Best NFL betting sites and apps

There are a number of apps available for sports betting in New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Iowa, Indiana, West Virginia and Nevada. Some of the best:

The top players in the industry are DraftKings Sportsbook, FanDuel Sportsbook, BetMGM, Caesars, PointsBet, and SugarHouse.

How does NFL betting work?

There are several ways to bet on NFL action. We’ll begin with the most simple type of bet: The moneyline. Taking the Moneyline means you’re betting on the winning team regardless of the margin of victory. Underdogs will get plus-odds on the moneyline and the favorites will have negative odds. For example, if a team is heavily favored they will be listed as Patriots (-230), meaning that a successful $230 bet on the Patriots pays out $100.

This differs from betting on the point spread, which accounts for the expected margin of victory. If the Patriots are heavily favored at home, they might be listed as -13.5, meaning a bet (likely at something close to -110 odds) on the Pats would only pay out if they win by 14 points or more.

Gamblers can also target the overall betting total of a game, which is usually listed as a number around 48.5 with the proposition of taking the Over or Under on a point total. Some sites offer the opportunity to bet on the expected point total of one team (23.5 points for example).

Then, there is often an extensive number of betting props (or propositions) where gamblers can wager on the individual performance of a player, the type of score to open a game, and the specific margin of victory. These options are often more expansive in prime time and playoff games.

Gamblers can choose to combine multiple propositions on a game, or multiple bets on different games, into a parlay. This wager is an all-or-nothing proposition which only pays out if all (anywhere between two and a dozen) bets are successful. The more bets added to a parlay, the greater the potential payout.

A teaser is a form of parlay that involves a combination of two to ten wagers in which you can adjust the point spread or total to your specifications. These bets are therefore more likely to succeed, but the payouts are smaller than in a parlay.

Finally, there is an option to bet on NFL futures. Rather than betting on an individual game, Futures offer gamblers the opportunity to bet on the eventual Super Bowl champion, divisional champion, or the number of wins that a team will accrue during the regular season. There are also futures bets available on postseason awards and other ongoing storylines.

Super Bowl odds 2022

NFL live betting

Another method of wagering on the NFL is live betting, also known as in-play betting. No longer are gamblers required to place their bets before opening kickoff and ride out the storm. Now users can watch a game unfold for one, two, or three quarters and place their bets based on updated odds.

The odds on online sportsbooks will shift throughout games and sometimes it won’t be possible to place a live bet until a team finishes their current drive and the odds can solidify. This can be a very effective method for the experienced sports fan. Those who can read how a game is unfolding in the opening minutes can target a line aggressively.

For example, the most recent Super Bowl between the Patriots and Rams turned into an offensive quagmire where neither team appeared poised to rack up many points. Those viewers that read into game flow and placed a bet on the Under (even as it shifted lower) were rewarded by a comfortable payout in a game that ended 13-3.

NFL betting trends

There are several free sites that will disclose information on where the public is betting in terms of the moneyline, point spread, and point total. These trends can lead to a shift in the lines as sportsbooks try to adjust when too much money is coming in on one side or the other.

These trends can also indicate which side of the line is a better bet based on the sheer number of bets coming in. However, the percentage of bets coming in on one side or the other is often not as telling as the percentage of money coming in on one side of the line.

A ton of bets indicates that the reactive public expects a favorite to roll, but a ton of money on one side indicates that experienced gamblers or “sharps” have found something in their research to inspire confidence.

Following the money usually profits, but there is a high level of risk and reward in “contrarian handicapping” by going against the public and backing an underdog at plus odds.

NFL line shopping

With so many sportsbooks and platforms competing for your wagers, there’s no reason not to shop around for the best deal. Some sites might have a team with a line of -4 (-110) on a particular game, but another site could have the same team at -3.5 (+120). There is generally an industry standard, but even a sleight differentiation can lead to huge changes in dividends in the long run. It’s vital for bettors to shop lines on multiple sites even if they don’t have a huge bankroll. If that’s the case, simply decrease the amount you’re betting on each game.

You can also shop lines by timing when you place your bets. Oddsmakers will set an Opening Line early in the week, but that could change based on how the public bets the game. Sometimes it makes sense to hammer an Opening Line right away so that you get the best odds possible. For example, the Packers could open at -7 at home against a poor opponent, but after 90% of bets come in on Green Bay, that number could rise. Conversely, the underdog might become appealing late in the week if the spread rises to 13 or even 14 points. Waiting for the right line can create the perfect opportunity to bet against the public at even better odds.

NFL Betting Tips

Finding a betting formula

Consistent success in NFL betting is hard to come by, since sportsbooks are often eerily accurate in how they set Spreads and Point Totals. In order to turn a profit, bettors have to find their own formula for determining value and potential winners.

It’s possible to “follow the masses” by betting on favorites that are seeing a huge percentage of wagers, but it is far more reliable to analyze trends and look for value based on those raw numbers.

As the season progresses, it can become apparent which teams have a tendency to “play down” to their opponent. Certain teams tend to play better when going up against heavy favorites, and many teams tend to play better or worse in prime time games. Analyzing a teams’ recent travel schedule, results on the road vs. at home, and tendency to rebound after a loss (see Bill Belichick’s Patriots) can help bettors find a winning formula.

There are certain analytics available for free on many sites that can help you predict how a game will unfold. Here are some of the key analytics that we use to predict game flow:

• Pace (the average number of plays a team runs per game) – This can primarily help you identify fast-paced games that are likely to go Over the total, or slow-paced games that will go Under.
• Offensive efficiency – Especially in the red zone, offensive efficiency can serve as a great indicator for which teams are capable of finishing drives with touchdowns and therefore covering the spread. Pass yards per attempt is another indicator of which teams are successful on offense in terms of controlling possession and creating points.
• Turnovers – On the other side of the ball, teams with great defensive efficiency in the red zone may help games stay under the point total. Teams that have shown an ability to create turnovers are far more bankable in terms of hanging close in games and potentially stealing a game when they’re underdogs.
• Win Probability – This is an advanced tool that can help tremendously with live betting. Algorithms can provide the likelihood of a team holding on for the win and that makes for a very safe bet.
• DVOA – There are comprehensive numbers on how defenses perform against specific position groups. There are also numbers on how an offensive line performs in terms of creating space at the second level and whether defensive lines are stronger on the right or left side. Match up the numbers from each team to consider whether star players will have more of an impact and sway the outcome.
• Home Field Advantage – Teams such as the Packers, Chiefs, Saints, and Patriots have a tremendous home-field advantage for several reasons. Lofty point spreads in those venues should be considered with more weight than a lofty point spread for a team like the Bengals, for example.

Each game brings its own criteria in terms of analytics and there is almost always ample time to crunch the numbers and find an edge.

NFL betting mistakes to avoid

Sports gambling can be a destructive force and should not be taken lightly or considered as a main source of income for anyone but the most experienced handicappers. Here’s a list of a few of the pitfalls that can turn a harmless habit into a money-draining problem:

• Chasing your losses: Gamblers can be overcome by a need to be “made whole” after losing their initial bet. This can be problematic during NFL Sundays since there is a new wave of games starting at 4 p.m. EST and two prime time games providing the opportunity to go “double or nothing” after an unsuccessful run in the early games.
• Managing bankroll: Again, the spreads and totals assigned by sportsbooks are often extremely accurate in terms of the final result, which means that few bets are a “sure thing.” Gamblers need to manage their bankroll wisely and avoid betting big on too many games regardless of their confidence level.
• Emotional betting: While gambling on NFL games should be fun, it’s not fun to lose your money because you were afraid to bet against your hometown team. Gamblers should always bet based on data, trends, and their gut feeling, rather than by their allegiances as fans.
• Hoping for longshots: It’s important to get good odds on a wager, but taking a bet that has little chance to come to fruition is not a reliable method. A horse with 50/1 odds would certainly pay out handsomely in the Kentucky Derby, but there’s a reason nobody expects that horse to have a shot at winning the race.
• Banking on favorites: Conversely, it’s unwise to always follow the public and take the more popular team with your wagers. Things change on a weekly basis in the NFL and teams always find a way to surprise. Remember that the other guys get paid too, and they’ll fight to the final whistle to post a more respectable score and potentially get under a lofty point spread.
• Betting while impaired: Again, NFL Sunday is a time to relax and enjoy a few adult beverages, but don’t get carried away while intoxicated. Accept losses when they come and avoid becoming overconfident because you’re feeling loose and unafraid of losing a few hundred dollars.

Online betting vs. retail sportsbooks

Few states have legalized online betting within state borders because it’s so difficult to regulate. But if you’re in a state with legal online betting, there are clear benefits to that platform. While retail sportsbooks will only accept bets before a game kicks off, online betting sites allow users to bet throughout the contest and adjust to live odds. The convenience of betting from your phone or laptop is hard to beat. That’s why live sportsbooks will offer promotions and try to enhance the in-game experience in order to draw in more numbers.

How to watch NFL games

Every Sunday select NFL games are broadcast on local TV. Viewers can watch any game by purchasing the Sunday Ticket through DirectTV, or the scoring highlights and exciting finishes compiled by the Red Zone channel. There are also options to stream NFL games through various online platforms. During the 2019-2020 season there will be Thursday Night Football games from Week 1 to Week 15 that will be broadcast on FOX and NFL Network. Sunday Night Football games are broadcast on NBC and ESPN carries Monday Night Football games.

NFL betting is becoming increasingly popular outside of the United States. With even more regular season games planned on UK soil and talk of a London franchise, the popularity of NFL betting will only continue to rise over the next few years. Read on for a comprehensive guide to NFL betting.

The NFL has consistently built on its International Series over the past few years and this season, the UK will host a minimum of three overseas games. Whilst games in UK only make up a fraction of the regular season fixtures, football fans can still watch the NFL all year round, so with more and more fans watching, this is the perfect time to learn about NFL betting.

NFL betting: Available markets

There are three basic bet types in NFL betting; Money Line, Handicap and Totals - the same as basketball betting.

Money Line

The Money Line (1X2 without the draw) is also commonly used amongst novice bettors because it is simple and straightforward - it is essentially betting on who will win the game.

Handicap

Opposing NFL teams vary in strength so in order to counter the perceived bias in abilities, bookmakers offer a points handicap to level the playing field - this is often referred to as “the spread”.

Experienced bettors will most likely think about things like how the weather can impact the result or whether a team is playing at home or on the road.

The handicap market is popular with more advanced bettors as it balances each team’s chances and offers more value - it is used as the standard reference point for referring to relative chances in a game.

By using a hypothetical example, we can explain how betting on a handicap works. Both teams are offered associated odds on either a plus or minus points score, so for example the Indianapolis Colts might be offered at -6 1.909 against the New York Giants at +6 2.020.

A bet on Indianapolis would win if the Colts win by six or more points, and similarly a bet on the Giants would have paid if they win the game, or lose by less than six points.

If the result was 29-17 to the Colts, those bettors who bet on the Colts to win -6 1.909 would have a winning bet as the point difference is 12. Six more than the handicap offered.

Totals

Totals NFL betting focuses on how many combined points will be scored by both teams during the game. Bookmakers offer an option to bet on whether or not the total points will be either over or under the totals mark. This is why this form of betting is often referred to as the Over/Under.

In both the handicap and totals markets, when a team exceeds the required points for a successful bet it is called ‘covering the bet’.

Alternative NFL betting markets

In addition to the more common betting markets, NFL bettors can also bet on time specific markets within a game (first quarter, first and second half), adjusted handicap markets (alternative handicap) and individual team totals. These markets are merely variations of the basic bet types mentioned above and work in the same way.

Outright NFL betting is also an option for bettors. These bets will usually run over a longer period of time and often span across an entire season. Examples of outright markets in NFL betting include season win totals for individual teams, Division winners, winner of the Super Bowl and the Super Bowl MVP (most valuable player).

Because the Super Bowl is such a big occasion in terms of NFL betting, there are often special markets posted for the event - these include scorer of the first touchdown and winner of the Super Bowl coin toss.

Developing an NFL betting strategy

Once you have mastered the basics of NFL betting, you may want to explore some more advanced strategies like a spread betting strategy. Bettors looking to bet on the NFL handicap must take into consideration a number of factors about the game, instead of just the chances of team X beating team Y.

By understanding what the key numbers are, you can avoid betting on a bad handicap and can even work out which team the bookmaker wants you to bet on.

The spread in NFL betting refers to how many points X is better than Y and an experienced bettor will most likely think about things like how the weather can impact the result - as this could effect the number of points scored - or whether a team is playing at home or on the road (away).

Professional NFL bettors spend time building power ranking systems to evaluate teams’ relative strengths and calculate who will have the advantage in any given game. This is then measured against the handicaps and odds offered by bookmakers – looking for discrepancies that represent value.

Collating reliable information is an integral part of any successful betting strategy. However, for those bettors new to NFL betting, there are some accessible handicapping systems that can produce accurate results in the short term.

Yardage differential

At the most basic level, the NFL is about the battle between offensive and defensive units. So one simple way to evaluate the strength of an NFL team is to look at the average offensive yards gained per play and the average defensive yards allowed per play.

As you would expect, teams that gain more yards than they allow tend to win. While this isn’t exclusively accurate, this measure can be used as a tool to predict future performances using a yards per play betting strategy.

Home-field advantage

NFL operates in a unique ‘closed’ league system, where relegation and promotion do not occur. From a statistical point of view, the data from successive seasons for such factors as home-field advantage (HFA) is robust.

To work out HFA for each franchise competing in the NFL you should subtract the total points scored by visiting teams from the home teams and divide by the total number of games played.

You will notice after working out the HFA for the past 20 years, each Franchise HFA is close to a 3-point mark, which has become standard for handicapping purposes - find out which NFL teams have the biggest home field advantage.

Key NFL betting numbers

In terms of the handicap in NFL betting, there are a few key numbers that bettors should be aware of. By understanding what the key numbers are, you can avoid betting on a bad handicap and can even work out which team the bookmaker wants you to bet on.

Similarly to the Run Line in baseball betting, most games in the NFL are decided by specific margins. The is the most common margin of victory in the NFL as most games are decided late on by a field goal (three points), while seven is the second most common winning margin, as this is how many points a team is awarded for a touchdown plus an extra point for a successful conversion.

Betting On Nfl Games

It is estimated that around 30% of NFL games are decided by three or seven points. This means that -2.5, +3.5, -6.5 and +7.5 are perhaps the most important numbers when it comes to betting on the handicap in the NFL. Sharp bettors will often wait for the handicap figure to fall around this mark before placing the bet they want to make.